The Ontario Home Builders’ Association (OHBA) recognizes the provincial government’s work in taking reasonable measures to manage the Ontario economy during very uncertain times. While this Fall Economic Statement does not introduce any significant new policy initiatives; we are encouraged that opportunities may still exist for the government to implement much-needed measures due to tariffs and other economic challenges to stimulate the Ontario home construction industry and keep over 40,000 workers employed. 

Ontario’s Financial Outlook

The government is projecting deficits of $13.5 billion in 2025–26 and $7.8 billion in 2026–27, followed by a surplus of $0.2 billion in 2027–28. 

The net debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be 37.7% in 2025–26, slightly lower than the forecasted 37.9% from the 2025 Budget. This ratio fell to a 13-year low last year. The net interest as a percentage of operating revenue ratio for 2025–26 is forecast to be 6.4% and remains close to the lowest levels it has been at since the 1980s. 

Ontario’s real GDP growth has been impacted by U.S. trade policy and tariffs and is projected to decelerate from 1.4% in 2024 to 0.8% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026, in line with the projections at the time of the 2025 Budget. Real GDP growth is expected to pick up in subsequent years with projected increases of 1.8% in 2027 and 1.9% in 2028. 

It is heartening to see the additional funding of $50 million for the Better Jobs Ontario program. This program supports skills training to help job seekers train and upskill for in-demand positions. We recognize the importance of our skilled labourers, and that without additional support, Ontario was looking at losing up to 40,000 skilled trades jobs. This is an important measure to support our members and tradespeople across Ontario. 

The Minister of Finance reaffirmed the Ontario government’s commitment to remove the 8% PST for first-time home buyers on new homes valued up to $1 million, pending the passing of federal legislation (Bill C-4). With the ratio of net debt to GDP falling to a 13-year low, this will free up surplus revenues that can be diverted to priority projects. We firmly believe that taking decisive action to address the housing crisis and to restart home construction in Ontario must be one of these priorities.  

With that in mind, OHBA will continue to advocate for the removal of the provincial portion of the GST on ALL new home construction, not just for first-time home buyers.  According to research conducted by OHBA, first-time home buyers currently represent approximately 5% of the new home market. It will take bold action by all levels of government to unlock supply and restore affordability. We will continue to call on the Government of Ontario to lead by taking bold action that will make homeownership a reality for younger generations.  
We anticipate that the next few years will be marked by uncertainty and low economic growth. Consumers are not making the largest purchase of their lives if they aren’t certain of the future. OHBA remains committed to continuing to lobby the provincial government to expand this PST relief for all new-home sales in Ontario, and spur both the purchase and ongoing construction of new homes across the province. 

The full Fall Economic Statement can be found here. 

Key messages related to our industry if you are speaking to your Member of Provincial Parliament can be found here.